THE Philippine economy is unlikely to feel any impact from developments in Venezuela as the country’s economic links with the South American nation remain very limited, a Cabinet official said.
“With respect to the impact of Venezuela… I don’t think that there’s any going to be [a] perceptible effect on us,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan told reporters in Malacañang on Monday.
Any potential impact on the Philippines will be indirect, he added, and only if the situation triggers broader actions or similar developments elsewhere that could affect global markets.
“But as it is, our link directly and indirectly with the Venezuela economy is not strong,” Balisacan said.
His views aligned with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.’s (MUFG) latest Asia FX Talk report, which said that while the United States’ military action in Venezuela had rattled markets, the immediate implications for Asia may be more muted and even marginally positive in some cases.
MUFG said that 2026 began with what it described as a “geopolitical earthquake” after US President Donald Trump ordered an attack on Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. The bank stressed, however, that the operation appears limited, with no current plan for US troops or administrators on the ground.
One of the key channels through which Asia could feel the effects is the global oil market, MUFG said. Developments in Venezuela could reinforce a downward bias in oil prices over time, especially as oil markets are already expected to be in a meaningful surplus this year.
Lower oil prices could be beneficial for large oil-importing Asian economies, including the Philippines, by easing inflationary pressures and reducing import costs.
“The initial implications for Asia’s markets probably include a bias for oil prices to head lower over time, which could be positive at the margin for larger oil importers in Asia…,” MUFG senior currency analyst Michael Wan said.
“With oil markets already expected to be in a meaningful surplus in 2026, this could add further pressure for oil prices to head lower, even as there is uncertainty around whether and how quickly Venezuela may be able to ramp up oil production and also regime stability,” he added.
